New Delhi, As the dust settles after the Delhi Legislative Assembly elections held on February 5, 2025, exit polls across various media outlets project a significant shift in the political landscape of the National Capital Territory. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is anticipated to secure a majority in the 70-member assembly, potentially ending the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) decade-long governance.
Exit Poll Projections
Multiple exit polls have provided varying seat projections, yet a common narrative emerges: the BJP is leading, with AAP trailing, and the Congress party making minimal impact.
- Matrize Polling Agency: Predicts a hung assembly with BJP securing 35-40 seats and AAP close behind with 32-37 seats.
- P-Marq: Projects BJP winning 39-49 seats, AAP 21-31, and Congress 0-1.
- People’s Insight: Estimates BJP at 40-44 seats, AAP at 25-29, and Congress at 0-2.
- People’s Pulse – Codema: Foresees a decisive BJP victory with 51-60 seats, leaving AAP with 10-19 seats and Congress with none.
- Poll Diary: Anticipates BJP obtaining 42-50 seats, AAP 18-25, and Congress 0-2.
- Chanakya Strategies: Predicts BJP at 39-44 seats, AAP at 25-28, and Congress at 2-3.
- DV Research: Estimates BJP securing 36-44 seats and AAP 26-34, with no seats for Congress.
- JVC: Projects BJP winning 39-45 seats, AAP 22-31, and Congress 0-2.
- Mind Brink: Offers a contrasting view, with AAP leading at 44-49 seats and BJP at 21-25, and Congress 0-1.
- Weepreside: Also projects AAP ahead with 46-52 seats, BJP at 18-23, and Congress 0-1.
- SAS Group: Predicts BJP at 38-41 seats, AAP at 27-30, and Congress at 1-3.
- Superbo-Poll: Estimates BJP securing 20-25 seats, AAP 38-43, and Congress 7-12.
While the majority of these polls indicate a favorable outcome for the BJP, it’s noteworthy that a few, such as Mind Brink and Weepreside, suggest AAP might retain its majority. This divergence underscores the unpredictable nature of exit polls and the importance of awaiting official results.
Historical Context and Exit Poll Accuracy
In the 2013 Delhi elections, they accurately predicted a hung assembly but underestimated AAP’s performance. In both 2015 and 2020, while they foresaw AAP victories, they failed to capture the magnitude, with AAP winning 67 and 62 seats respectively out of 70. This historical context suggests that while exit polls provide a snapshot, they may not always capture the full picture.
Political Reactions
The projected resurgence of the BJP has elicited varied responses from political leaders. AAP leaders have expressed skepticism about the exit polls, citing past instances where such polls underestimated their performance. Congress leaders, facing projections of minimal to no seats, have dismissed the exit polls, expressing confidence in a better-than-expected performance.
Factors Influencing the 2025 Elections
Several elements have contributed to the dynamics of the 2025 Delhi elections:
- Leadership Changes: The arrest of former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on corruption charges weeks before the election led to the appointment of Atishi as the new Chief Minister. This sudden leadership change may have influenced voter perceptions.
- Campaign Strategies: The BJP’s aggressive campaign focused on governance issues, infrastructure development, and law and order, contrasting with AAP’s emphasis on its track record in education and healthcare.
- Voter Turnout: A voter turnout of 60.42% was recorded, with the highest in North-East Delhi at 66.25% and the lowest in South East at 56.16%. Turnout variations can significantly impact election outcomes.
Looking Ahead
The official counting of votes is scheduled for February 8, 2025. While exit polls provide an early indication, the final results will confirm the actual mandate of the Delhi electorate. Regardless of the outcome, this election underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of Delhi’s political landscape.
As the city awaits the official results, the potential shift in power highlights the importance of democratic processes and the ever-changing preferences of the electorate. The 2025 Delhi Legislative Assembly election serves as a testament to the vibrant and participatory nature of India’s democracy.